To predict what our world will be like by the year 2030 in regards to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions is somewhat oblique. But it doesn’t mean the world can just amble around until 2030 to not be serious about reducing emissions, or necessarily that chaos will erupt in 2030 either. As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s difficult to predict the present, let alone the future.”
Reflecting on this year only! Our Ottawa River flooded this spring affecting so many of our neighbours, the City of Venice is more than knee-deep in water because of tidal surges and there is chaotic flooding in northern England. Then there is the unprecedented fire ravages such as the Amazon Forest alit, multiple parts of California ablaze and the heart-wrenching bush fires in Australia. The Aussies are in the beginning of their spring with the worst months ahead of them with sparse rain and hot temperatures in the forecast. Worse still, their government are climate-deniers defaming those that aren’t. These are just some of the tragedies that are occurring globally.
Scientists are adamant hat if we exceed a 1.5 degree temperature increase by 2030 or whenever; greenhouse gas emissions will result in more dangerous and costly disruptions. Longer, hotter heat waves and more frequent crop-killing droughts will prevail. Mountain glaciers will melt faster as the planet warms, intensifying the flooding, and speeding up the sea level rise. Even Arctic permafrost will thaw that in turn will release more greenhouse gases.
The 2030 target will be a beneficial benchmark to indicate how significantly we are reducing greenhouse gases. First of all, it negates some of the risks that already exist but those risks will continue to build no matter what. At any stage more progress is always better than less progress, less warming is always better than more warming.
In some ways, the next 11 years may set up a deadline that’s too lenient. It could already be too late for concern of the Greenland and Arctic ice sheets melting.
The world will still exist if we breach 1.5°C or heaven forbid 2°C, but the climate impacts and risks will be greater and the global temperature will be higher. That’s a certainty. The question asked, “Is it sinking into public awareness. I sure hope so.” The scientific community is saying, “In terms of deadlines, we have already missed the deadline – we should have started modifying this approach decades ago, then we would have the problem solved.”
I accept that many of us won’t be around in 2050 to see the progress of gas house emissions and its effect on our world, good, bad or indifferent or maybe not even in 2030. It makes me think of carbon trading and buying credits amongst industrial polluters. Imagine if we had age-trading and one could buy a few years credit, to not miss the milestones coming down the road. Put me on the list for buying!
Did you know that 11 per cent all global greenhouse gas emissions are due to deforestation caused by humans? This rate is comparable to emissions from all cars and trucks on the planet. Also, 11 per cent of the world’s population (800 thousand) are vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Too expensive to make changes and adapt to a warming world? The price tag is estimated $140 billion US per year. It seems like a lot but is only 0.1 per cent of global GDP.
There are positive and exciting things to expect in 2030. By then, a new cellular network standard will have emerged called G6, based on frequencies ranging from 100 GHz to 1 THz and so unimaginable. While here in Whitewater Region there is problems with the most basic of cell service!
Desalination engineering (converting salt water to drinking water) will be able to serve all the population. 80 per cent of doctor’s visits will be automated exams. And there will be highways designated for ‘driver-less vehicles’ only – I would feel much safer with my hands off the wheel. Even world religions will make a resurgence. That’s only for openers.
On one hand there can be technological advancements to get fired up about but in reality there is much more to be feared that is coming in 2030. To be at the ready, including our governments, is the best hope of limiting the pain we will face.
